Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

Hanqing Xu; Zhan Tian; Honglin Zhong; Dongli Fan; Runhe Shi; Yilong Niu; Xiaogang He; Maosi Chen

doi:10.1117/12.2272988

1 September 2017 Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

Hanqing Xu, Zhan Tian, Honglin Zhong, Dongli Fan, Runhe Shi, Yilong Niu, Xiaogang He, Maosi Chen

Proceedings Volume 10405, Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability XIV; 104050W (2017) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2272988
Event: SPIE Optical Engineering + Applications, 2017, San Diego, California, United States

Abstract

Peanut is one of the major edible vegetable oil crops in China, whose growth and yield are very sensitive to climate change. In addition, agriculture climate resources are expected to be redistributed under climate change, which will further influence the growth, development, cropping patterns, distribution and production of peanut. In this study, we used the DSSAT-Peanut model to examine the climate change impacts on peanut production, oil industry and oil food security in China. This model is first calibrated using site observations including 31 years’ (1981-2011) climate, soil and agronomy data. This calibrated model is then employed to simulate the future peanut yield based on 20 climate scenarios from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) developed by the InterSectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) driven by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results indicate that the irrigated peanut yield will decrease 2.6% under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 9.9% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 29% under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, the rain-fed peanut yield will also decrease, with a 2.5% reduction under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 11.5% reduction under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 30% reduction under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively.

Citation Download Citation

Hanqing Xu, Zhan Tian, Honglin Zhong, Dongli Fan, Runhe Shi, Yilong Niu, Xiaogang He, and Maosi Chen "Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections", Proc. SPIE 10405, Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability XIV, 104050W (1 September 2017); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2272988

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