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10 May 2007 A polynomial chaos approach to ARIMA modeling and terrain characterization
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During the vehicle design process, excitation loads are needed to correctly model the system response. The main source of excitation to this dynamic system comes from the terrain. Characteristic models of terrain topology, therefore, would allow for more accurate models and simulations of the system response. Terrain topology can be characterized as a realization of an underlying stochastic process. It has been demonstrated that ARIMA modeling can be used to characterize non-stationary road profiles. In this work it is suggested that ARIMA models of terrain topology can be further developed by characterizing the previously deterministic autoregressive coefficients as random variables. In this way uncertainty is introduced into the system parameters and propagated through the process to yield a distribution of terrain topology. This distribution is then dependent on the distribution of the residuals as well as the distribution of the ARIMA coefficients. The use of random variables to classify road types is discussed as possible future work.
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Shannon M. Wagner and John B. Ferris "A polynomial chaos approach to ARIMA modeling and terrain characterization", Proc. SPIE 6564, Modeling and Simulation for Military Operations II, 65640M (10 May 2007);

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