Accuracy analysis by using WARIMA model to forecast TEC in China

Lilong Liu; Jun Chen; Pituan Wu; Chenghui Cai; Liangke Huang

doi:10.1117/12.2207359

9 December 2015 Accuracy analysis by using WARIMA model to forecast TEC in China

Lilong Liu, Jun Chen, Pituan Wu, Chenghui Cai, Liangke Huang

Proceedings Volume 9808, International Conference on Intelligent Earth Observing and Applications 2015; 98082U (2015) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2207359
Event: International Conference on Intelligent Earth Observing and Applications, 2015, Guilin, China

Abstract

Aiming at the characteristic of nonlinear and non-stationary in ionospheric total electron content(TEC), this article bring Wavelet Analysis into the autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast the next four days’ TEC values by using six days’ ionospheric grid observation data of Chinese area in 2010 provided by IGS station. Taking IGS station’s observation data as true value, compare the forecast value with it then count the forecast accuracies which are to prove that it has a quite good result by using WARIMA model to forecast Chinese area’s Ionospheric grid data. But near the geomagnetic latitude of about ±20°grid, the model’s forecast results are a little worse than others’ because Geomagnetic activity is irregular which lead to the TEC values there change greatly.

Citation Download Citation

Lilong Liu, Jun Chen, Pituan Wu, Chenghui Cai, and Liangke Huang "Accuracy analysis by using WARIMA model to forecast TEC in China", Proc. SPIE 9808, International Conference on Intelligent Earth Observing and Applications 2015, 98082U (9 December 2015); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2207359

ACCESS THE FULL ARTICLE

INSTITUTIONAL
Select your institution to access the SPIE Digital Library.

SELECT YOUR INSTITUTION

PERSONAL
Sign in with your SPIE account to access your personal subscriptions or to use specific features such as save to my library, sign up for alerts, save searches, etc.

PERSONAL SIGN IN

No SPIE Account? Create one

PURCHASE THIS CONTENT

SUBSCRIBE TO DIGITAL LIBRARY

50 downloads per 1-year subscription

Members: $195

Non-members: $335 ADD TO CART

25 downloads per 1 - year subscription

Members: $145

Non-members: $250 ADD TO CART

PURCHASE SINGLE ARTICLE

Includes PDF, HTML & Video, when available