Research on short-term international financial stock price model prediction based on RBF and GM (1,1)

Yuhao Wu; Hui Shu; Yuan Zhan

doi:10.1117/12.2646744

23 August 2022 Research on short-term international financial stock price model prediction based on RBF and GM (1,1)

Yuhao Wu, Hui Shu, Yuan Zhan

Proceedings Volume 12330, International Conference on Cyber Security, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Economy (CSAIDE 2022); 123302B (2022) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2646744
Event: International Conference on Cyber Security, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Economy (CSAIDE 2022), 2022, Huzhou, China

Abstract

With China 's financial market development, many investors look into the high-yield stock market, so it is important to find a more accurate way to predict stock prices. This paper takes the Shanghai Composite Index as the research object, selects the data from November 5, 2020, to November 5, 2021, and randomly selects three groups of continuous 15 - day data for research. Four models, namely, GM (1,1), RBF, GM (1,1) -RBF based on equal weight and GM (1,1) -RBF based on composite weighting method, are adopted to fit and predict the opening price. Compared with GM (1,1), RBF and equal weight GM (1,1) -RBF, the optimization model based on the composite weighting method has improved the prediction accuracy and accuracy, with an average accuracy increase of 3.7 % and a strong generalization of the model. The innovation of this paper is to combine the stable but large error algorithm with an unstable but small error algorithm, which has higher robustness than the single model prediction and use this method to achieve the accurate short-term prediction of the Shanghai Composite Index. The improved financial stock price combination forecasting method proposed in this paper can provide a reference model for financial stock price prediction and provide some suggestions for investors ' quantitative investment.

Citation Download Citation

Yuhao Wu, Hui Shu, and Yuan Zhan "Research on short-term international financial stock price model prediction based on RBF and GM (1,1)", Proc. SPIE 12330, International Conference on Cyber Security, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Economy (CSAIDE 2022), 123302B (23 August 2022); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2646744

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