Probability forecasting of earthquake disaster risk in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone

Lin Zhu; Yi Zheng; Fuqiang Shi

doi:10.1117/12.2691866

23 August 2023 Probability forecasting of earthquake disaster risk in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone

Lin Zhu, Yi Zheng, Fuqiang Shi

Proceedings Volume 12784, Second International Conference on Applied Statistics, Computational Mathematics, and Software Engineering (ASCMSE 2023); 127840Q (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2691866
Event: 2023 2nd International Conference on Applied Statistics, Computational Mathematics and Software Engineering (ASCMSE 2023), 2023, Kaifeng, China

Abstract

Practice has shown that integrating the long-term prediction results of high risk areas and the study of hifh seismic peak acceleration is of great significance for improving the scientificity of seismic fortification standards and reducing natural disaster losses. Based on multidisciplinary observation data such as geology, geodesy, and seismology, this paper calculates the forecasting results of seismic risk probability in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone (GTEZ) by referring to the research ideas of earthquake risk probability prediction in California, USA. The results show that the potential earthquake disaster risk in GTEZ mainly comes from the Liupanshan fault in the southwestern margin of Ordos, northern margin of the West Qinling fault, the northern margin of the Qinling fault in the Guanzhong Basin, and the Shangdan fault at the junction of Shaanxi, Hubei and Henan province. The 0.1g exceeding probability is mainly about 0.5-0.9; and the exceeding probability of 0.15g is about 0.5-0.6. The greatest potential earthquake disaster risk around GTEZ in the next 30 years may come from the strong earthquake of the Liupanshan Fault, and the probability of exceeding 0.1g is about 0.9g, Baoji, Luonan, and Danfeng may cause certain ripple effects. The largest earthquake disaster risk in GTEZ in the next 30 years may come from the Tianshui section of the northern margin fault of the West Qinling and the fault zone at the northern margin of the Qinling Mountains, and the maximum probability of exceeding 0.1g is about 0.5-0.6.

Citation Download Citation

Lin Zhu, Yi Zheng, and Fuqiang Shi "Probability forecasting of earthquake disaster risk in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone", Proc. SPIE 12784, Second International Conference on Applied Statistics, Computational Mathematics, and Software Engineering (ASCMSE 2023), 127840Q (23 August 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2691866

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KEYWORDS

Earthquakes

Geodesy

Geology

Data modeling

Natural disasters

Spatial resolution

Statistical analysis

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