For monitoring and short-term forecasting of the meteorological situation and atmospheric air quality near settlements, transport hubs and industrial facilities, the Meteo+ automated computing system is proposed, based on a mathematical model of the atmospheric boundary layer and an effective numerical method focused on the use of supercomputers. The mathematical model includes an impurity transport model with a reduced chemical mechanism and a non-hydrostatic mesoscale meteorological model with a modern moisture microphysics parameterization scheme. Examples of the successful application of the developed automated computing system in the numerical prediction of surface air quality deterioration in light winds and temperature inversions, as well as in the prediction of such dangerous weather phenomena as wind gusts are given.
This paper presents the results of applying an optimal interpolation method to assimilate meteorological observation data obtained by using ground-based weather stations and temperature profilers of the Atmosphere JUC (Joint Use Center) at the Institute of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS to calculate a numerical prediction with high horizontal resolution (1km) of the parameters of the atmospheric boundary layer for the next 24 hours.
Some results of observations and numerical calculations of the meteorological situation and the quality of surface atmospheric air in the city of Western Siberia under weak wind conditions are presented. The observations were carried out using the meteorological stations of Research Equipment Sharing Center called “Atmosphere” and the TOR-station of the Institute of Atmospheric Optics named after Zuev SB RAS. For numerical calculations, mesoscale models of numerical weather prediction TSUNM3 and a model for studying the quality of atmospheric air were used. The quality of the numerical forecast for these models was checked using the above equipment for atmospheric research and calculations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Observations carried out in the first ten months of 2020 made it possible to establish about 45 episodes and their duration, when for six hours or more the surface wind velocity was less than 1 m/s. Conditions of a weak wind in the city of Tomsk in 2020 most often occurred in the warm season and lasted from 20-24 o'clock to 8-10 o'clock local time of the next day. For the eight selected episodes, the TSUNM3 numerical weather model predicted the beginning and the end of the observed weak wind episodes quite satisfactorily. However, there is some tendency for the model to overestimate the duration of episodes with calm conditions. An analysis of observations of atmospheric air quality in the area of the TOR-station for the first ten months of 2020 showed that the surface concentration of carbon monoxide decreases with increasing wind velocity, while ozone, on the contrary, increases. The same conclusions can be drawn from the results of numerical calculations for two selected dates of 2020, when the duration of calm conditions was more than 9 hours. These results of numerical calculations also made it possible to establish some features of changes in concentrations in the city during the day with a long period of stagnation of the surface wind.
Computational experiments were carried out using the WRF model version 4.2. The influence of different sets of parameterizations on the results of calculating the surface values of air temperature, wind speed and direction is considered. A set of parameterizations providing the best accuracy of numerical prediction (with a resolution of 1 km) of local meteorological characteristics for the conditions of Western Siberia, is selected. It was found that the set of parameterizations affects the simulation quality, but it is not the main aspect in ensuring prediction accuracy. To test the WRF model, the observations obtained using meteorological instruments of the JUC Atmosphere of the V.E. Zuev Institution of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS, the airfield information and measurement system of the Tomsk Airport, and the Tomsk weather station were employed.
The results of the numerical prediction of dangerous weather phenomena (strong wind and fog) for the conditions of the city of Tomsk and the Tomsk district are considered. The numerical prediction is carried out with a resolution of 1 km using the WRF and TSUNM3 mesoscale meteorological models. The results of the calculations are compared with the observations obtained for selected dates in 2020 using the meteorological instruments of Research Equipment Sharing Center called “Atmosphere” of the Institute of Atmospheric Optics named after Zuev SB RAS and the airfield service of the Tomsk Airport.
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